MA stalled rallies last week
The EURUSD moved lower last week, and in the process traded to the lowest level since August 16th (same low on that day). Looking at the weekly chart, the low price sniffed the 200 week MA (green line at 1.1314 this week — it is at 1.13114 this week). Be aware that on weakness this week, that MA will come in play. The 1.12823 is also a level to eye in the new week. There are a number of swing levels in that area.
On the topside, looking at the hourly chart below, the 100 hour MA stalled rallies on Tuesday, Wednesday and again on Friday. Each test found sellers leaning — keeping the sellers more in control.
Today, watch that level for bias clues. Look for sellers to lean against the level. If the momentum stalls again, it could open the door for more downside potential, with the lows from Thursday (at 1.13556) and Friday (1.1335). Under that, and the 200 week MA comes in play.
Alternatively, a move the 100 hour MA — that is met with more buying — should be a signal to buyers that the low may be in place.
The next key confirmation hurdles would be the 1.14315 (see red numbered circles). That level stalled the rally on Thursday). Above that, and the 200 hour MA (green line at 1.14622 and moving lower) will be eyed.
On Monday last week, that 200 hour MA was broken for one hourly bar, but failed on the next and was not re-visited again.