USD/JPY rises to a high of 113.05 on the day
Whether or not Trump is intentionally wanting to prop up the stock market ahead of the US midterm elections is very much up for debate, but the fact is that his words are enough to lift risk sentiment and equities sentiment so far today.
The market is liking the headline seen here and yen pairs are rising as a result with E-minis also spiking. For USD/JPY, the bounce breaks above the 100-hour MA (red line) turning near-term bias more bullish but the inability to break above 113.00 makes this bounce less convincing for the time being.
The rebound comes after the pair tested support from the 38.2 retracement level @ 112.62 earlier and held on there.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump continues to talk up hopes of a trade resolution with China ahead of the midterms, only to scupper those hopes thereafter ahead of the G-20 Summit at the end of the month. Right now, he wants to boost the stock market so that he can flaunt it so expect any downside for USD/JPY to be limited in such a a case as there is the «Trump factor» backing it up for the next week.
The key risk in the day ahead lies in the US jobs report so until then, I don’t expect price to run away all too far from current levels. A break of the 113.00 handle would be a good start for buyers to retest the highs seen earlier this week at 113.39 but I don’t expect a break of that unless the jobs report later has something to suggest an extension to the upside for the dollar.