AUD/USD looks to hold below the 200-hour moving average
Overnight price action saw the pair rise towards the 100-hour MA (red line) as the dollar weakened and risk sentiment improved a little but the upside move failed to break above said resistance level as buyers fail to establish a more near-term bullish bias in the pair.
After which, we’re seeing a bit of a rejection back towards the downside again. Risk remains a little skittish after US equities erased most of their gains into the close yesterday but so far it’s doing little to hurt sentiment in Asia. But equities aren’t exactly performing too well either.
With Treasuries and US stock markets closed today, it’s tough to see risk sentiment taking the lead in markets. Right now, trading will rely a lot on the ebb and flow and technicals are one of the key things to look at for clues.
For AUD/USD, buyers need to hold a break above the 100-hour MA in order to extend the upside leg. Meanwhile, for sellers it’s all about holding below the 200-hour MA (blue line) to regain a more bearish bias in the near-term to drive price back towards 0.7200.
Looking at the daily chart:
Price did manage a close back above the 100-day MA (red line) yesterday and that’s a good sign for buyers. However, the failure to break above the 100-hour MA as seen above is not. Now price is threatening a move back below the 100-day MA again. What does this mean?
From the charts, the near-term technical levels are taking precedence now. As long as price is unable to find its way above the 100-hour MA, sellers are still very much in the game.