USD/JPY touches a low of 112.94 on the day now
That’s the lowest the pair has traded since 26 November. The break lower here sees price fall back below the broken trendline support for the year as well as the July high @ 113.17. Risk isn’t exactly deteriorating much further on the day but this is mostly just further bids in the yen and offers in the dollar as we move along in the session.
The greenback is also currently facing session lows against the aussie, kiwi and loonie.
As for USD/JPY, the momentum to the downside will still depend on the performance of US equities and Treasury yields today. E-minis are still down by 0.5% on the session now while Treasury yields are still lower with 10-year yields down 2 bps to 2.949%.
Technically, there is some support to be had around 112.50-60 before the 20 November low @ 112.31 will be eyed by sellers. But the key support level to look out for in the coming sessions will be the 100-day MA (red line) @ 112.25. As long as price holds above that, the upside momentum seen since March will be sustained.
Sellers have attempted to hold a break below the 100-day MA on five occasions so far: May x2, August, September, October. But all five attempts failed as buyers keep the bullish momentum going. Hence, that will be the key line in the sand that will determine if the downside move here has room to extend further below 112.00.