Price currently sits between the two key hourly moving averages
If you’re wondering about the lack of movement in EUR/USD to start the week it’s mainly because price action is somewhat sticky right now as near-term bias in the pair remains undefined/neutral. After falling back below the 1.1500 handle and the 100-hour MA (red line) on Friday, buyers defended a move towards the 200-hour MA (blue line) in early trades this morning before price is now ranging between 1.1450-70 levels.
The focus as we begin the new week has been on China’s poor trade data and that hasn’t translated into much meaningful sentiment towards trading the euro or the dollar so far. It looks like if anything else, markets are gearing towards US trading for more clues but with the lack of economic releases to come later I reckon traders will have to rely more on technical levels for a gauge of sentiment.
For buyers, it’s all about getting back above that 100-hour MA @ 1.1493 to retest the 1.1500 handle. A break back above that will help to feed the idea of a bullish breakout again but as we saw last week, it is very much not a given at this point.
As for sellers, it’s all about finding a break below the 200-hour MA @ 1.1449. Hold a break below that and the near-term bias turns more bearish and price will be looking to extend back towards the downside of the 1.13 to 1.15 range.
Of note, the 100-day MA in the pair sits at 1.1473 currently and that appears to be another key level that traders are doing battle around. With sticky points all over the place, it wouldn’t be too surprising if price continues to sit at these levels until the next catalyst comes along.