EUR/USD trades narrowly close to 1.1100 to start the week
The technical picture is very much similar to that of Friday but this time price is just under the 1.1100 handle instead of holding just above it. Sellers managed a downside move towards the end of last week but ran into swing region support around 1.1070-80.
That allowed price to bounce back to current levels but sellers are still in near-term control. So, what are the key levels to look out for in the near-term?
For now, any risk for sellers in chasing a downside move can be defined by the 100-hour MA (red line). That sits at 1.1137 currently so that is the key level that buyers need to break above in order to regain back some near-term control.
Further resistance is then seen through offers close to 1.1150 before the 200-hour MA (blue line) at 1.1170 comes into play.
As for buyers, any risk for an upside move can be defined by the swing region around 1.1070-80. That is a similar story to last Friday. Unless sellers can break below that, a potential move towards the 1.1000 level may have to wait for a while still.
In terms of key risk events to look out for this week, the first few days has little to offer with perhaps the FOMC meeting minutes being the notable event on Wednesday.
Other than that, it’s all about the risk mood and I’d rather pay attention to the technical levels outlined above in this case.
However, looking towards the end of the week we’ll have euro area PMI data on Thursday as well as Jackson Hole to navigate through going into the weekend. I reckon those will be the more important factors driving sentiment in EUR/USD this week.