Gold is up by 0.3% currently but how does the technical picture look like?
In the big picture, price has seen a significant retracement to the downside in light of improving risk appetite over the past week or so. The move lower in gold also comes alongside a sharper correction in Treasury yields during the period.
For now, the downside move can still be largely viewed as a correction after weeks of solid momentum since the end of May — rising from ~$1,270 to highs just above $1,550.
If anything else, I would argue that this correction is a «healthy» one given what we have seen so far in gold.
Currently, price is looking to challenge key support around $1,480.00 and $1,482.40 and a break below those levels may precipitate a further fall in gold in the short-term.
In the long-term though, I still think gold is the place to be amid more solid fundamentals. The global easing cycle looks set to continue over the next 12-18 months and that will no doubt end up being supportive of gold prices — especially if the Fed is involved.
Sure, there may be a short-term correction now and one that could possibly extend further after we see the Fed’s dot plots projection next week. But it won’t detract from the allure in gold in the bigger picture in my view.
It’s all about picking levels if you’re sticking to that view. Looking at the near-term outlook:
It’s not looking pretty for gold. Sellers are firmly in near-term control and are keeping price below $1,500 but a more telling sign is that we’re seeing lower highs and lower lows being posted since the end of last week.
That’s never a good sign to buy into so let’s see if gold buyers can continue to keep their faith amid what looks like a sellers’ market ahead of support around $1,480.00-82.40.