Last week’s high stalled at the MA level (although there were failed breaks too)
The AUDUSD is up on the day, helped by the «risk on» flows. Stocks continue to move higher (S&P, Nasdaq and Dow are near session highs). Gold has given up gains. Crude oil is higher by 10% (July contract). Increased global economic growth, should benefit the AUDUSD.
Technically, the price of the AUDUSD moved above both its 100 and 200 hour moving averages (and 0.64 him 539 and 0.64674 respectively) and a downward sloping trendline (at 0.6475). The 50% retracement of the move down from last week’s highto the last week’s low was also broken at 0.64812. All moves were a bullish steps forward. Traders, looking for further upside momentum, will use those levels as risk defining levels (depended on their risk tolerance) .
Having said that, there is some overhead hurdles to get to and through. More specifically, on the topside, the price high reached 0.65036. That was about 5 pips short of the 100 day moving average at 0.65089 (see overlay of the 100 day moving average on the hourly chart above).
Recall from last Wednesday, the price spike higher stalled right against that moving average level and fell back down down. On Monday and Tuesday however, the price did break above the moving average (see overlay of moving average on the hourly chart above), only to fail (Tuesday’s break was within the hourly bar). We currently trade right around the 0.6498 level.
Needless to say a break above the 100 day moving average, should solicit more buying. However traders will need to see the price stay above that moving average. There just has been been too many fails on breaks above (see red shaded areas).
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