The choppy action did lead to a trend move
Yesterday, I wrote a long education piece outlining the choppy action in the USDCHF as an indication the «market» (i.e., ALL the traders around the world) did not know what to do, but I also commented (see the post HERE):
The good news is «the market» may not know now what it wants to do, but at some point it will figure it out. The fundamental story might be risk on or risk off, or the SNB might do this or the Fed do that. However, when that happens, the price will show it. The price will reflect that «new revelation» and move/trend higher or lower.
That move/trend started from a resistance extreme yesterday at 0.92277. Once the 0.96975 area was cleared (the low from yesterday and on Friday), and the 100 day MA at 0.9684, it has been an even greater run lower.
We currently are below the 61.8% of the move up from the May 1 low (so the May range) at 0.96627, and trading at new session lows at 0.9652.
The non-trend, turned to trend.
The next target comes in at 0.96451 (swing lows from May 5, followed by the swing low from May 4 and 0.96269 (see hourly chart above).
Close risk is around the swing lows from May 12 and May 13 and the 61.8% retracement at the 0.9662-639 area.
Looking at the 5-minute chart below, this is what the trend move looks like today. The price rise in the early Asian session did in fact use the 200 hour MA as resistance (after ignoring it for the price 3 days), and started the steps lower. The 100 bar MA (at 0.96739 and moving lower) a ,lags behind and will need to be broken to slow the trend move lower feeling.
See here for global coronavirus case data